19 Milliarden-Deal: Facebook kauft Whatsapp – Analyse von Benedict Evans

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Einer der besten Analysten im Bereich Mobile, Ben Evans, zur Übernahme des Messenger-Dienstes Whatsapp durch Facebook:

First, it shows the continued determination of Facebook to be the ’next‘ Facebook. It’s striking to compare the aggressive reaction to disruption shown by Google, Facebook and other leading web companies today with how some of their predecessors a decade ago stumbled and lost their way.

Second, the winner-takes-all dynamics of social on the desktop web do not appear to apply on mobile, and if there are winner-takes-all dynamics for mobile social it’s not yet clear what they are. There are four main aspects to this:

  • Smartphone apps can access your address book, bypassing the need to rebuild your social graph on a new service
  • They can access your photo library, where uploading photos to different websites is a pain
  • They can use push notifications instead of relying on emails and on people bothering to check multiple websites
  • Crucially, they all get an icon on the home screen.

Any smartphone app is just two taps away – a desktop site can crush a new competitor by adding it as a feature with a new menubar icon but on mobile there isn’t room to do that. Mobile tends to favor single-purpose, specialized apps.

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Third, the sheer scale of the numbers involved is a good illustration of what the shift to mobile means. I produced a presentation here to try to drive home this point: mobile is the next computing platform and it is several times larger than the desktop internet. There are now roughly the same number of smartphones and PCs on earth – those PCs are mostly shared and immobile or locked-down corporate boxes, while the smartphones are mobile and personal.

Der große Verlierer in dem Spiel heißt für mich Snapchat. Die beiden Gründer Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy haben im vergangenen Jahr Marc Zuckerbergs Offerte über drei Milliarden Dollar abgelehnt. Ein derartiges Angebot wird nicht wiederkommen.

Und nicht vergessen werde sollte in dem Zusammenhang, dass Zuckerberg Whatsapp keinesfalls Google überlassen wollte, die ihrerseits auch Interesse an dem Messenger-Dienst zeigten.