On The Future of Apple and Google

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People expect value from new categories like wearables and sensor networks overnight. But the reality is that the pieces need to work harmoniously, tied together by software. And only after the infrastructure is in place can developers go and create cool new things. Wearables and sensors and connected devices are interesting – but much more so when tied together with killer apps. And platform history tells us that only after infrastructure is laid do developers write software. This was even true for the internet back in the 90’s. It wasn’t until the web browser and email and other killer apps came along that you really understood the value of the internet, even though it had connected people years earlier.

These system wide network effects in mobile, together with new classes of connected devices, are helping close the divide between the digital world and the physical world. It will continue to fall away gradually as we mature technologically. In 5 years, it’s likely that the notion of an app won’t exist like it does today.

2007 ging das erste iPhone an den Start, im Juli 2008 standen im App-Store rund 500 Apps zum Herunterladen bereit. Sieben Jahre später sind etwa 1,2 Millionen Apps verfügbar und bis März 2014 wurden mehr als 500 Millionen Smartphones  alleine von Apple verkauft. Das unterstreicht die explosionsartige Entwicklung eines technischen Ökosystems – in der Tat getrieben durch die Verfügbarkeit von Software.

Insofern erscheint der Ausblick von Steve Cheney für die nächsten fünf Jahre nicht unrealistisch.